The latest news from Iran is heartening to those who support sanctions as a means to prevent the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons.The economy is in shambles with the Iranian rial
losing value at an unprecedented rate. The people are feeling the pain and there are
anti-government demonstrations for the first time since the 2009 election. A nervous regime is blaming “agitators” for the crisis and
is arresting supposed troublemakers.
It appears that sanctions are having an effect — even if they are only part of the reason Iran’s economy is in trouble (economic mismanagement is also a factor). The Obama administration says that are “working.”
But are they really? The answer is “yes” if their purpose is to inflict pain on the Iranian people. It is “no” if sanctions are intended to cause Iran to abandon or scale down its nuclear program.
Yes, it is possible that the hardship and misery produced by sanctions might fuel a revolution that would topple the current regime much as the Shah was toppled. That could happen and few developments would be more welcome.
However, there is no evidence that any Iranian government would comply with Western demands related to uranium enrichment. Support for Iran’s nuclear program is as strong among the anti-government forces as within the regime. A democratic and/or secular Iran would still refuse to yield to the West’s demands.
This is from TIME magazine:
The price paid by ordinary Iranians for their country’s nuclear program is rising as sanctions bite at their standard of living. The past year has seen rents soar; electricity bills have doubled; meat and fresh fruit, even vital medicines, have become luxury items; and the national airline has become unsafe and inconvenient, with sanctions blocking refueling access at Western airports and the sale of replacement parts for its fleet of aging American planes. The choking effects of economic sanctions are being felt, in different ways, from the low-slung apartment blocks of south Tehran all the way to the gauche penthouse towers of the capital’s north. But despite the decline in living standards accelerated by economic isolation, Iranians remain remarkably united behind the country’s nuclear program.
In theory, the current regime could be replaced by one that, like that of the Shah, would be a Western puppet and would dismantle the nuclear program.
Of course, that kind of regime would have to be imposed from the outside, following an invasion like the one that took down Saddam Hussein in Iraq. That is what the neoconservatives dream about but it is not going to happen. Besides another regime like that of the Shah, beloved by Americans and Israelis, would last only as long as we could occupy the country.
In short, it is impossible to imagine any contingency in which sanctions “work.” The Iran hawks know that too, which is why just beneath their praise for sanctions is the strong hint that only war would do the trick.
Here is a typical statement, coming from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, the AIPAC think-tank, which appeared in Foreign Policy on Thursday:
On their own, sanctions are unlikely to work. Instead, for the United States to succeed in its aims, sanctions must be just one part of a broad, coordinated, and disciplined policy which brings all policy tools to bear on the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
You don’t need a magnifying glass to read between the lines in that paragraph.
No, the Iran hawks remain determined to achieve war, preferably one launched by the United States but, failing that, launched by Israel (backed by the United States).
Of course, that won’t end the Iranian nuclear program either. In fact, according to former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (who served in that post in the Bush and Obama administrations) attacking Iran would accelerate its weapon program and be “catastrophic” overall. Here is what Gates said in a speech in Norfolk this week as reported by the Virginian-Pilot.
Neither the United States nor Israel is capable of wiping out Iran’s nuclear capability, he said, and “such an attack would make a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable. They would just bury the program deeper and make it more covert.” Iran could respond by disrupting world oil traffic and launching a wave of terrorism across the region, Gates said.
“The results of an American or Israeli military strike on Iran could, in my view, prove catastrophic, haunting us for generations in that part of the world.”
The bottom line then is that neither sanctions nor war can succeed. That leaves one option that is never considered: unconditional diplomacy.
The Iranians want sanctions lifted. We want assurances that they will not produce a bomb. Thus far, we have gone into negotiations demanding that the Iranians freeze reprocessing while, at the same time, saying sanctions will not be lifted. That is not diplomacy; it’s an ultimatum, what the Germans call a diktat.
And then we are surprised that the Iranians say no.
Enough already. We can either negotiate fairly or we can simply acknowledge that Iran, a sovereign state, will do what it chooses to do. Neither sanctions nor war can change that. Only honest diplomacy can.
But the Obama administration still says no to real diplomacy, as the New York Times has just reported. Perhaps that will change if President Obama wins re-election, but not if he continues to allow Binyamin Netanyahu to make our policy for us.
Screaming hypocrisy.Crippling sanctions against Iran as they attempt to get the bomb.
Trenchant opposition to BDS on Israel even though they have 200 bombs.
Yup and yet our Author is nowhere to be see or heard or will cover what really exist. Nicely stated!
It is rather amusing hearing ppl from the mainstream media talk about how the rail is failing when the fact is that they arent part of the banking system of the federal reserve that is creating the inflation within the US and around the world through its continued efforts to printing money. Which creates inflation. Sanctions haven’t worked in 35yrs what is going to be the difference when many companies, including US,EU, CHINA, India all receive waivers when it comes to avoiding the sanctions? No one talks about any of this, Rosenberg where are you on this?
Why is no one talking about Iran being apart of the non-proliferation treaty all the while Israel isn’t and we know she has aprox 150-200 nuclear weapons? Hmmmm
As for the so called point of no return, if Israel or the US bomb Iran and its reactors, that is going to create much of a problem in regards to killing thousands through the explosions of those reactors. As well, why do we talk as if Iran is building these reactors in the last ten years when we build aprox -6-12 reactors during the days of the Shah?
Great points
And if the Iranian government were to abandon Uranium enrichment in favor of thorium based power generation, following in the footsteps of India…… Neocons would not then be able to control the oil – or any other of Iran’s natural resources.
Why should Iran even give up that right to nuclear technology? It comes with a lot of advancements in sectors, which can and will grow as a result of it. Iam not claiming you are against Iran developing it. However, who are we or anyone else to state that Iran has no right to such tech? Iran is far more advanced in regards to a modern nation state than the little nations we have toppled around the world through our so called war on terrorism. Iran can place and has placed satellite’s in LEO in the last ten years, to its advancements in many other sectors of its economy.
The only hope for humanity to survive into the next century and beyond is for the US and EU to reconcile themselves with the fact that their days of empire are over, and relearn how to negotiate. If a common thief can do it from the perspective afforded by a court’s dock, then it should be a no-brainer for the grads of this country’s best schools.
Scientific and technological progress, including nukes, are no longer the exclusive province of a small western elite. It is something that the rest of world knows about, wants for itself, and, in some cases, is better at it than we are. They have learned, tragically, from our own actions, that the only way to keep the white colonialists away is to have nuclear power. They have learned from the examples of Libya and Iraq that submission to duplicitous EU and US regimes will destroy their aspirations for a decent, even safe, life.
Iran and the US (inter alia) are members of the NNPT. The flash-points of today: Israel, India and Pakistan – are not. Israel has recently refused to attend a meeting for a nuke-free zone in the ME. Not exactly inspiring… The US and Euro powers would do better to seek common cause with China and Russia and bring to heel the three untrustworthy and unstable belligerents. Preferably before they go off. The prospect of a regional war expanding into WW3 is blood-curdling real. Furthermore, this would be the first (and last world) war that will reach into and destroy the USA with the rest of the planet. Unless grown ups restrain the idiots playing with matches next to a powder keg.
However the Iranians elect to be governed within their own borders, is their affair. Let’s have the decency to remember that Iran has attacked no one in 200+ years. The US has been at non-stop war with the world for over a century. Considering what is left of the waning constitutional democracy in this country, our politicians have neither any business nor right to make demands of others. Economic sanctions may have worked decades ago; not anymore. Today sanctions inspire yet millions more with deep-rooted hatred and distrust of US’s policies. Have we already forgot the 500 thousand children in Iraq who have paid the ultimate price for the demented policies of a few aging rich white men with a death wish for the planet?
With the above in mind, Iran would be criminally insane and negligent of its duty to protect and defend its own people were it to submit to the absurd demands to give up its nuclear technology. Which part of “Iran signed the NNPT and has been cleared by UN inspectors” does the US, and its useful (NATO) idiots, not understand?
This adventurism, today aimed at Iran, is solely in the interest of a small group of very wealthy, subhuman strain of humanity (check out any book on the fast growing subject of ponerology). Even if the West were to succeed in Iran, is there anyone sufficiently delusional anywhere on the planet to trust the psychos will stop there? China and Russia are their real goal and the underlying reason for reviving the Cold War. That is less than 800K people against 6M+…
The point-of-no-return for the entire planet is already clearly visible in the crosshairs. Tick. Tock.
It could easily be argued that the “point-of-no-return” is already in the rear-view mirror, as the planetary automobile plunges over the cliff of hubris. It will take losing a major war on home soil, with at least tens of thousands of American domestic dead, before any US politician dares declare independence from the most extreme Israel-über-alles policy of the last ~40 years. And with such a formidable head start in shaping media narratives and therefore public opinion, even with (say) Chicago, Seattle and Boston replaced by smoking, radioactive holes in the ground, the Israel-firsters might still keep their hands around the American throat.
We’ve had zero effective resistance to decades of American power being used against American interests. It’s about time that changed — if it still can.
“even with (say) Chicago, Seattle and Boston replaced by smoking, radioactive holes in the ground, the Israel-firsters might still keep their hands around the American throat.”
Sadly, agree. They will likely blame the Palestinians for that, too.
Very nicely stated and factual as well, no one ever talks about those things in which you have stated and it just drives me nuts that they dont. It is just funny that no one states that Iran is a signatory to the NPT treaty which was put into effect during the Shah, all the while after the 1979 revolution they kept it along with that of reactors that were built during the days of the shah and still operate today. No one, no one in the mainstream media talks about that.
In regards to China, Russia and them claiming an attack on Iran will be an attack on them. I hate to break to anyone but China and Russia are no position militantly to do much of anything and i also appreciate that someone states that do we really think that the insanity of invading other nations will stop with Iran? No, i suspect that it will go onto other areas such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China as well.
In view of the apathy/indifference/cowardice, as evidenced by our government and its flunkies, aka congress/senate, all paid with the taxes extracted from WeThePeople, it is critical that we, as citizens, show how their job ought to be done.
To wait for the government/media to do their job is tantamount to waiting for Godot. That is why I am grateful for sites such as this one whose authors have the necessary courage, wherewithal and clout to establish fora for nobody’s such as I, to vent and add my own coin’s worth.
If MJR, you and I, and others like us will do nothing, no one else likely will.